Estimating sales figures. 3

 

３.Make an estimate model.

Put the specific numerical values onto each required element of the (2) calculation formula.  A point to note is that if there are differences based on the time or the customer, you can consider by dividing the cases.

 

Each element of the sales are estimated shown as below.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hours of operation:

The hours of operation of the cafeteria is 10:30~19:30, and it is divided to 4 time periods.

 

10:30~11:30; From the opening to just before noon.  It is considered as there aren't many people, except those who eat lunch early.

11:30~13:30; Around noon.  The busiest hours, it mostly fills the capacity and sometimes there are not enough seats.

13:30~17:30; From the end of lunch hour to the time for supper.  It is considered as there is almost nobody.

17:30~19:30; Around the supper hours.  It is considered as there are not so many people. However, some boarding students eat supper in the cafeteria.

 

Capacity:

According to the cafeteria employee, there are 450 seats.

 

Utilization rate:

Based on the explanations mentioned above, it is considered roughly same as the figure.

 

Turnover rate:

It is considered as about an hour with the consideration of the time to choose and buy the meals, the time to eat, the time to chat with friends.

 

Price:

It is assumed an average of 350 yen per student is being spent.  A lunch meal of 70 yen for rice, 30 yen for miso soup, 200 yen for a side dish, 50 yen for small bowl is available with this much money.

 

４.Calculate:

With numerical values set all together, so the calculation will give you the estimation result.  First, calculate the number of customers.

 

Number of customers

=Capacity × Utilization rate × Turnover rate × Hours of operation

=(1 × 450 ×0.3 × 1) + (2 × 450 × 0.9 × 1) + (4 × 450 × 0.1 × 1) + (2 × 450 × 0.3 × 1)

=1395

 

Sales

=Average price per customer × Number of customers

=350 × 1395=488,250 (yen)

 

These are the results.

 

５.Compare with the actual numerical values:

By comparing with the actual numerical values, it can be determined whether you have properly estimated or not.  It does not always have to match with actual numerical values.  The importance of the Fermi estimate is the process of how the result is revealed.  In that case, consider the reason why the estimated values were different from the actual numerical values.

 

According to the cafeteria employee, the average sales per day is about 470,000 yen, and it is from 420,000 yen to as much as over 500,000 yen per day.  Therefore, the estimation of 488, 250 yen appears to be not very far from the actual number.  The close estimated value suggests there are possibilities that the values of each element are also roughly matching.  If so, that tells us that the utilization rate is considerably low, when the peak time period is excluded.  In order to increase the sales of the cafeteria, solving this point will become the key.