From here, make estimates of sales figures by using the Fermi estimate.  The estimate of sales is not only to train the logical intelligence, but also very effective to understand the structure of sales.  It is very important to make an estimate of profits in advance in order to conduct business, therefore, the estimate of the sale is a very first step.  The Fermi estimate is a way to estimate the numerical values logically from a precondition.

※“現役東大生が書いた　地頭を鍛えるフェミル推定ノート (Fermi Estimation and Thinking Skill workshop) is referred to in this presentation.

 

There are 5 steps in the Fermi estimate.

 

１.Verify the precondition.

Fully understand the questions and define what is required.  Ambiguities may be defined by yourself.

 

２.Determine how to approach.

In order to estimate, set the calculation formula commensurate with it.  For example, since we are estimating the sale, now:

 

Sales=A unit price per customer × Number of customers

 

And then analyze the number of customers, furthermore:

Number of customers=Capacity × Utilization rate × Turnover rate × Hours of operation

 

These will be used.  There are descriptions of each element on the next page.

 

３.Make an estimate model.

Put the specific numerical values onto each required element of the (2) calculation formula.  A point to note is that if there are differences based on the time or the customer, you can consider by dividing the cases.

 

４.Calculate.

With the numerical values set all together the calculation will give you the estimation result.

 

５.Compare with the actual numerical values.

By comparing with the actual numerical values, it can be determined whether you have properly estimated or not.  It does not always have to match with actual numerical values.  The importance of the Fermi estimate is the process of how the result is revealed.  In that case, consider the reason why the estimated values were different from the actual numerical values.

 

There are explanations by using exercises on the next page.